The second level is centered around our belief that a past event was inevitable. We often do this when claiming we said something when we didn’t.

The first level is “memory distortion.” This involves misremembering a past judgment or opnition. 2 According to psychological scientists Neal Roese and Kathleen Vohs, there are three stacking levels on which this can occur. The hindsight bias happens when new information surrounding a past experience changes our recollection of that experience from an original thought into something different. He overestimates his ability to have predicted the end of his relationship with Jane once the relationship is suddenly over. An unforeseen break-up becomes foreseeable to John after it takes place. He had known it all along, and so this bad news from Jane was no surprise to him. Now that he looks back at his relationship with Jane, he saw many signs that pointed to trouble: cancelled plans, awkwardness, being ignored by her friends, and so forth. He knew it! John tells himself, and then his friends. It turns out, Jane is not so happy with the relationship. Is everything alright? Does Jane still love him? He did notice some tension between them the last few weeks. One day after work, John receives a message from Jane: ‘We need to talk.’ Suddenly, he gets worried. They are madly in love, and have plans to move in together in a few months - at least that’s what John thinks.

Consider this hypothetical: John and Jane have a fantastic relationship.

Hindsight meaning